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FIRST WEEKLY PICK 6

November 3rd, 2007 · 2 Comments

By Ron Borges

In an effort to please those of you who have written asking that I begin picking NFL games so you can go the other way and thus have plenty of spending money before Christmas, here is the first of what will be a weekly Pick 6.

Since it is impossible to pick with any reasonable chance of success all 16 NFL games (some would say it’s impossible for me to pick one NFL game with any chance of success), we will endeavor to find six games a weekend where a play seems wise and rank them 1through 6, from Lockadeeni (to borrow a phrase made famous by Chris Carlin of WFAN fame) to Long shot.

So here goes our first effort.

LOCKADEENI
1. SAN DIEGO -7 @ Minnesota – The Chargers’ new coaching staff finally seems to have gotten acquainted with its players and the Vikings will pay for it. San Diego has won its last three straight by a combined score of 104-27 and are tied for the division lead despite a 1-3 start. Now they’re facing a team without a quarterback fit to carry that title and it shows. Minnesota started off 4-2 after head coach Brad Childress took over but is 4-13 since. To borrow a Belichickism: “That’s not what we’re looking for.’’ The addition of WR Chris Chambers has already opened up the field for TE Antonio Gates and more running room for LaDainian Tomlinson. Minnesota has the league’s worst pass defense already. It didn’t need to see Chambers, Gates and Tomlinson coming to town but they’re there.

NEARLY A SURE THING
2. SEATTLE + 1 ½ @ Cleveland – The Browns are coming on but the Browns also haven’t won three in a row since Marion Motley was playing fullback for them. If he was in this game, I might lean toward Romeo Crennel’s improving Browns but he isn’t so I’m not. The Seahawks are coming off a much needed bye week and should finally have Deion Branch and DJ Hackett back together at WR for the first time since early in the season.

50-50 MEANS YOU LOSE THE VIG – AND MAYBE THESE GAMES
3. DALLAS -3 @ Philadelphia – This is a must win situation for the Eagles and usually I would go with the more desperate team but the Birds seem in disarray. Their coach was lambasted this week by a judge who sentenced his two sons to 23 months in prison on drug violations, their quarterback mouthed off about how the road to the NFC East title still goes through Philly, which is pretty bold statement when you’re 3-4, and they just don’t seem very sound at anything but rushing the passer. Which means the Cowboys’ third-ranked running game (4.8 yards a carry) will work overtime.

4. TENNESSEE -4 over Carolina – The Panthers are going back to David Carr at quarterback. That’s because 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde’s Achilles said to him “What do you think you’re doing?’’ At 43, Testaverde was retired until Jake Delahomme went down a few weeks ago. He should have stayed there. The fact that Carr couldn’t keep him out of the huddle says that this switch isn’t the answer either. Tennessee, meanwhile, has the league’s No. 1 run defense (64.3 yards allowed per game) and a quarterback in Vince Young who hasn’t thrown the ball well himself this season but he’s done it well enough for his team to be 5-2 in the very competitive AFC South.

5. WASHINGTON – 3 ½ @ N.Y. Jets – The Jets have made the obligatory QB switch that all 1-7 teams must. Only problem is even while struggling Chad Pennington was playing better than most of his teammates. Now untested Kellen Clemens takes over. He’s likely to fair as well in New York this season as Roger Clemens. The ‘Skins, meanwhile, are still smarting from that 52-7 lashing the Patriots put on them and want to take it out on somebody. Why not Bill Belichick’s former acolyte, Eric Mangini? If player-only meetings will help, the ‘Skins may run up 52 since they had about that many player powwows leading up to this game.

LONGSHOT UPSET SPECIAL
6. KANSAS CITY – 2 ½ vs. Green Bay – The Packers seem far more likely to dominate this game but Herman Edwards has the Chiefs playing over their heads, especially on defense, and Green Bay is coming off an emotional Monday Night win in overtime and could come up flat. This is the Pack’s second straight road game and comes on a short week. The Chiefs are winning the opposite of the Patriot Way, surviving a – 11 scoring differential to go 4-3. Kansas City must control the clock and Larry Johnson, despite a 3.6 yards per carry average, has had 100 yards three of his last four games. Besides, the 6-1 Packers play in the NFC don’t they?

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Tags: Game Predictions & Analysis · Football · General

2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 strazzerj // Nov 5, 2007 at 11:16 am

    Let’s review…

    ———-
    LOCKADEENI
    SAN DIEGO -7 @ Minnesota

    ACTUAL RESULTEROONI
    San Diego 17, Minnesota 35

    ———-
    NEARLY A SURE THING
    SEATTLE + 1 ½ @ Cleveland

    NEARLY RIGHT, BUT NOT QUITE
    Seattle 30, Cleveland 33

    ———-
    50-50 MEANS YOU LOSE THE VIG – AND MAYBE THESE GAMES
    DALLAS -3 @ Philadelphia
    TENNESSEE -4 over Carolina
    WASHINGTON – 3 ½ @ N.Y. Jets

    I DON’T BET, SO I DON”T LOSE VIGS
    Dallas 38, Philadelphia 17
    Tennessee 20, Carolina 7
    Washington 23, NY Yets 20

    ———-
    LONGSHOT UPSET SPECIAL
    KANSAS CITY – 2 ½ vs. Green Bay

    NOT SO HOT, NOT SO SPECIAL RESULT
    Kansas City 22, Green Bat 33

    ———-

    Correct = 2
    Incorrect = 4

    Perhaps going the other way is indeed a wise play.

  • 2 Ron Borges // Nov 5, 2007 at 7:46 pm

    As promised, I provided anyone looking for Christmas $$$ the easy way to earn some. Look at the weekly Pick 6 and Pick 6 differently! We here at Back and Forth try to help folks when we can!

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